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🎮 What Are Prop Bets?
A proposition bet (commonly called a "prop bet" or "player prop") is a wager on a specific event or outcome within a game that doesn't directly affect the final score or who wins. Instead of betting on which team will win or the total points scored, you're betting on individual performances or specific occurrences during the game.
Think of it this way: traditional sports betting asks "Who will win?" or "What will the final score be?" Prop betting asks questions like "Will this pitcher strike out more than 6.5 batters?" or "Will this hitter get at least one home run?"
The Simple Definition
A prop bet is any wager on something other than the game's final outcome. You're betting on individual player performances, specific game events, or statistical outcomes rather than who wins or loses.
Props vs. Traditional Bets
Here's how prop bets differ from traditional wagers:
- Moneyline: Betting on which team wins the game
- Spread: Betting on the margin of victory
- Total (Over/Under): Betting on combined score of both teams
- Props: Betting on individual performances or specific events within the game
📖 The History of Props Betting
Prop betting as we know it today has a surprisingly specific origin story. It didn't evolve gradually; it was invented for one specific game and one specific player.
The Birth of Prop Betting
The first-ever prop bet was offered for Super Bowl XX between the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots. Art Manteris at Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas created a novel wager: "Will William 'The Refrigerator' Perry score a touchdown?"
Why The Refrigerator?
During the 1985 season, Bears coach Mike Ditka had been using the 335-pound defensive tackle as a goal-line fullback. Perry had scored three touchdowns during the regular season, capturing the imagination of fans nationwide. Manteris saw an opportunity to attract casual bettors with a fun, accessible wager.
20-to-1 Longshot
Caesars opened the line at 20-1 for Perry to score. The bet was so popular it was quickly bet down to 2-1 by kickoff. Other Vegas books rushed to offer the same wager.
The Fridge Delivers
In the third quarter, Perry punched in a 1-yard touchdown run. Legendary running back Walter Payton didn't score, but the 335-pound defensive tackle did. Vegas took a short-term loss, but a new era of betting was born.
PASPA Restricts Expansion
Congress passed the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), effectively limiting legal sports betting to Nevada and a few grandfathered states. Props betting remained confined to Vegas.
The Supreme Court Changes Everything
In Murphy v. NCAA, the Supreme Court struck down PASPA in a 6-3 decision, ruling it violated the Tenth Amendment. States were now free to legalize sports betting, including prop bets.
The Explosion
Within six years, 38 states plus Washington D.C. legalized sports betting. Mobile apps from DraftKings, FanDuel, and others made prop betting accessible to millions. The market exploded from a Vegas novelty to a multi-billion dollar industry.
The Refrigerator's Legacy
What started as a creative way to get casual fans interested in betting on a blowout Super Bowl has become one of the fastest-growing segments of the sports betting industry. Every time you bet on a player's strikeouts or home runs, you're participating in a tradition that started with a 335-pound defensive tackle scoring a touchdown.
📋 Types of Prop Bets
Prop bets fall into two main categories: player props (focused on individual performances) and game props (focused on specific game events). Player props have become the dominant category, especially in baseball.
Player Props
These bets focus on what an individual player will do during a game. They're typically presented as over/under lines:
⚾ Pitcher Strikeouts
Bet on whether a starting pitcher will record over or under a set number of strikeouts.
🏏 Home Runs
Bet on whether a hitter will hit a home run. Often priced as yes/no with plus-money odds.
📈 Total Bases
Bet on a hitter's combined bases from hits (single=1, double=2, triple=3, HR=4).
🏆 Hits
Bet on whether a player will record over or under a certain number of hits.
Game Props
These bets focus on events that happen during the game but aren't directly tied to individual player stats:
- First team to score: Which team scores the first run?
- First inning runs: Will either team score in the first inning?
- Total runs in first 5 innings: Over/under for the game's first half
- Will there be extra innings? Yes/no on the game going past 9 innings
Novelty Props
For major events like the World Series or All-Star Game, sportsbooks offer "novelty" props that go beyond standard statistics:
- Length of the national anthem
- Color of Gatorade shower (for championship games)
- First song played during player introductions
- Which celebrity will be shown first on TV
⚾ MLB Player Props Explained
Baseball is uniquely suited for prop betting because of its individual nature. Every at-bat is a one-on-one battle between pitcher and hitter, making individual performances easier to isolate and predict than in team-oriented sports.
Pitcher Props
Strikeouts (Ks)
The most popular pitcher prop. You bet on whether the starter will record over or under a set number of strikeouts. Typically ranges from 4.5 to 9.5 depending on the pitcher.
Hits Allowed
Bet on the total number of hits the pitcher will allow. Lower totals for aces, higher for back-end starters.
Earned Runs
Over/under on how many earned runs the pitcher will allow. Closely tied to their ERA and opponent's offense.
Outs Recorded
How deep into the game will the pitcher go? This prop measures total outs (18 outs = 6 innings).
Hitter Props
Total Bases
Sum of bases from hits: single (1), double (2), triple (3), home run (4). Walks and HBP don't count. One of the most popular hitter props.
Hits
Simple over/under on total hits. Usually set at 0.5 (will they get a hit?) or 1.5 (will they get multiple hits?).
Home Runs
Will the player hit a home run? Usually offered as yes/no with plus-money odds due to the low probability.
RBIs
Total runs batted in for the game. Heavily dependent on lineup position and runners on base opportunities.
Runs Scored
How many times will the player cross home plate? Tied to their ability to get on base and the hitters behind them.
Stolen Bases
Will the player steal a base? Usually offered as over/under 0.5 for known base stealers.
Why MLB Props Are Popular
Baseball's daily schedule (162 games per team) means there's constant action. Unlike football with one game per week, you can bet MLB props almost every day from April through October. This frequency, combined with the sport's rich statistical history, makes MLB ideal for props betting.
🚀 The Props Betting Explosion
The prop betting market has experienced unprecedented growth since the Supreme Court struck down PASPA in 2018. What was once a Vegas novelty is now a mainstream phenomenon.
What Drove the Explosion?
1. Mobile Betting Apps: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and others made betting accessible from anywhere. You don't need to visit a casino; you can place a prop bet from your couch.
2. Fantasy Sports Crossover: Millions of Americans already tracked individual player statistics through fantasy sports. Prop betting was a natural extension of skills they'd already developed.
3. Same-Game Parlays: Sportsbooks introduced the ability to combine multiple props from the same game into one bet. This created exciting, high-payout opportunities that attracted casual bettors.
4. Real-Time Data: Advanced statistics and live data feeds allow sportsbooks to offer in-game props that update as the action unfolds. You can bet on a pitcher's next strikeout while watching the game.
5. Social Media Integration: Betting picks and prop analysis spread virally on Twitter/X, TikTok, and YouTube. "Prop locks" became a genre of sports content.
The Numbers Tell the Story
In 2018, legal sports betting existed in essentially one state (Nevada). By 2024, Americans wagered over $120 billion legally across 38 states. The U.S. sports betting market is projected to reach $30+ billion by 2030, with prop bets representing an increasingly large share of that handle.
The Prop Bet Share
While exact figures for props as a percentage of total handle aren't publicly reported by most sportsbooks, industry analysts estimate that player props now account for 20-30% of all sports wagers, up from single digits before 2018. For some sports like baseball and basketball, the percentage is even higher.
💰 How to Bet Props: A Beginner's Guide
Understanding the Lines
Prop bets are typically presented in over/under format with American odds:
Example: Gerrit Cole Strikeouts
Over 7.5 (-115) means you're betting Cole will record 8+ strikeouts. The -115 means you'd need to wager $115 to win $100.
Under 7.5 (-105) means you're betting Cole will record 7 or fewer strikeouts. The -105 means you'd wager $105 to win $100.
Key Factors to Consider
- Matchup Analysis: How does this pitcher perform against this lineup? Does this hitter crush left-handed pitching?
- Recent Form: Is the player hot or cold? Have they been consistent or volatile?
- Ballpark Factors: Coors Field inflates offense; Dodger Stadium suppresses it. Park factors matter.
- Weather: Wind blowing out at Wrigley? Home runs become more likely. Cold weather? Balls don't travel as far.
- Lineup Position: Leadoff hitters get more plate appearances. Hitters in the heart of the order get more RBI opportunities.
- Historical Splits: How does the player perform at home vs. away? Day games vs. night?
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Ignoring juice: The -115 on both sides means the book takes a cut. You need to win more than 50% to profit long-term.
- Chasing big payouts: Plus-money props (like HR bets) are enticing but hit less often. Balance risk and reward.
- Overlooking lineup changes: Always check if your player is actually starting. A late scratch ruins your bet.
- Betting volume over value: More bets doesn't mean more wins. Be selective with your props.
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